November 17, 2000

 
 

November 17, 2000. This morning I read the article named Human Error, published by Money magazine. His main point was that animals could actually do better predicting stocks than humans. How could this be? See, human dig too deeply into patterns and feel that because the pattern has been going so long that it has to be reversed. Animals act on instinct and will most likely follow the trend. People won't respect that the stock market is random, I should know, I've done my share of day trading. The author mentioned an example about how value fund weren't doing well last spring, so everyone turned to the beaten down technology markets. In theory with all of the investors putting in buy orders, the stocks should rise. However this was not the case, the technology stocks followed their trend and kept crumbling. I am not an exception to this rule; I have fallen into this trap many times. This trap is actually setup by large investment firms, see when the small investors are losing, it's the large investment companies that are cleaning up and taking the money to the bank. The patterns of the markets are impossible to follow, because anything is possible. No technological analysis is firm and in stone, and on the other end of the spectrum, no fundamental analysis is concrete. A general rule, that I never use but I like to tell people that ask me about investing, if you look at a stock and can't decide if you want to buy it within a couple of seconds, it was never meant to be. This article put a new twist on to many previous articles that were similar; I liked it very much and thank you. I did, however, believe that a psychologist and not a stockbroker wrote the article because of his terminology and his bias viewpoint. All in all, the article was wonderful look at patterns, especially for me, because of my ties with business.

 Journal Entries

September 7, 2000
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September 28, 2000
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September 30, 2000
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November 1, 2000
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November 17, 2000
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November 24, 2000
November 27, 2000
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